El Niño, surface sea temperatures deciding factors for early prediction
The first major Atlantic hurricane forecast for 2026 predicts a slightly below-average season.
Colorado State University Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team released its first forecast for the upcoming season on Thursday and said that it expects 13 named storms and six hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but some storms may appear before or after those dates.
“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity,” CSU said in its statement released on April 9. “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/ strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
The CSU team is predicting six named storms become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
Hurricane
In 1984, Dr.s Bill Gray at Colorado State University documented that Atlantic hurricane activity responded to a variety of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic parameters spanning various portions of the globe.
Those large-scale factors interact with the global climate system in such a way that then alter the environment of the tropical Atlantic, where most major hurricanes develop and intensify. For example, hurricanes are more likely to develop when they traverse through an environment of low vertical wind shear (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), high sea surface temperatures and high mid-level moisture.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was an abovenormal season with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
Three hurricanes reached Category 5 intensity (Erin, Humberto and Melissa).
CSU will issue additional forecasts on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also is expected to issue a forecast in June.
2026 Storm Names
Here is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic season:
• Arthur
• Bertha
• Cristobal
• Dolly
• Edouard
• Fay
• Gonzalo
• Hanna
• Isaias
• Josephine
• Kyle
• Leah
• Marco
• Nana
• Omar
• Paulette
• Rene
• Sally
• Teddy
• Vicky
• Wilfred
New NHC graphics
As part of a suite of product improvements for the 2026 hurricane season, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is implementing two new tropical products and services: a new operational hurricane track cone map, and new storm surge alerts for Hawaii.
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast.
In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas.
The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds.
