A stalled frontal boundary currently stretching along the Southeastern Atlantic coast and across central Florida is the weather maker to watch. An area of low pressure has already formed along this front off the coast of Georgia. This low is expected to move toward the west across the Florida peninsula today and emerge over the eastern Gulf tomorrow.
Once it is over the Gulf, this low will have a chance to develop into a tropical system through Wednesday. Computer models currently show it moving west-northwestward and coming inland somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the upper Texas coast later in the week.
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the system only a 10 percent chance of turning tropical, but that could change if it lingers over warm Gulf of Mexico waters.
According to the NHC’s Stacy Stewart, the disorganized system was centered about 110 miles east-southeast of St. Augustine, Fla., this morning and “strong upper-level winds and proximity to land” are expected to keep it from developing quickly. Gusty winds within the system were measured at only 25 mph this morning.
This morning, most reliable computer models showed the system moving to the west toward the mouth of the Mississippi River then making an abrupt turn to the north and curving back to the east, away from Louisiana.
While it is too soon to tell if this low could develop into a tropical system, Hurricane Alicia did form from a somewhat similar situation in August, 1983. If this system does develop, it will compete with another developing low pressure system for the next name on the 2010 hurricane list, which is Danielle.
At the very least, the Gulf system could bring some welcome rains and a break from the our torrid heat spell.